24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Apr 16, 2025

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The main avalanche concern today is </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>wet loose avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>. Temperatures did not drop to freezing in many areas overnight, so the snowpack will have a thin refrozen crust only an inch or two thick at most, if at all. Any crusts will melt quickly with sunshine and warm temperatures before clouds move in this afternoon, and it will be possible to trigger wet loose avalanches on steep slopes, especially those that receive direct sunshine. Natural avalanches might initiate near rock outcrops</span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span> </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>on steep, sunny slopes.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Without a good refreeze overnight there is potential for some larger wet loose avalanches. Even small avalanches will pose a threat where they can push you over cliffs, into rocks, or carry you down a long steep slope.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Assess the snow surface for wet snow instabilities, and plan to be off and out from under steep, sunny slopes before the sunshine further weakens the snow surface. Any rain this afternoon could also further weaken the snow surface. If you plan to travel on steep slopes, look for shadier slopes with a thicker refrozen crust or dry snow. Sinking past your ankle in wet snow, or seeing rollerballs, pinwheels or natural avalanches means it is time to find lower angle terrain or slopes with a colder, dry or refrozen snow surface.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Near Cooke City, you may encounter isolated unstable wind drifts on upper elevation slopes where snow surfaces remain soft and dry.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Also, be cautious on slopes below </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>large overhanging cornices</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> and give cornices space while traveling on ridgelines above, as they have become weak and easier to break from the heat and sunshine.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The main concern are wet snow avalanches on sun-exposed slopes where a few large avalanches are possible. Assess the snow surface for wet snow instabilities and isolated drifts, especially in steep consequential terrain. The avalanche danger is MODERATE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

Hyalite Road Closure 

The Hyalite Canyon Road is closed to ALL MOTORIZED VEHICLES until May 16. This is a regular annual road closure to reduce road damage during the spring thaw. Bicycle and foot traffic are allowed.

We went through Flanders' Creek to the Flanders Weather Station to pull it for the season. We descended to the Grotto Falls TH via the Winter Dance Route. The surface snow got wet as the day progressed, but we saw no wet snow avalanche activity. I wouldn't be surprised if there was limited activity as the day progressed.

Northern Gallatin, 2025-04-15

Blazing April Sun

Date
Activity
Skiing

We went through Flanders' Creek to the Flanders Weather Station to pull it for the season. We descended to the Grotto Falls TH via the Winter Dance Route. The surface snow got wet as the day progressed, but we saw no wet snow avalanche activity. I wouldn't be surprised if there was limited activity as the day progressed.

Recent warm temperatures have almost universally affected snow surfaces. North-facing slopes above 9500' elevation remain dry, and pockets of dry snow exist at lower elevations on shaded slopes. South-facing slopes have cycled a few times, and the corn snow is coming in reasonably well. 

There were no signs of dry snow instability.

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Flanders Creek
Observer Name
Zinn and Darby

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Tue Apr 15, 2025

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>In Cooke City, fresh snow from the weekend experienced its first significant warm-up with above-freezing temperatures and intense April sunshine yesterday. Similar weather today will repeat the cycle. </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Wet loose avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>, both natural and human-triggered, are likely on steep, south-facing slopes. These avalanches typically begin at a point and expand as they collect snow. Rocks and cliff bands often serve as their starting points. Steep, confined terrain poses the greatest risk because snow running downhill has limited room to spread out. Thankfully, wet snow hazards are easy to identify and avoid. Transition to cooler, shaded north-facing slopes before the day’s warmth destabilizes the snow. Conditions are becoming unstable when the upper few inches of snow get moist, roller balls trickle downslope and small wet snow avalanches dribble out of rocky areas.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Over the weekend, strong winds created snow drifts up to two feet thick. While these wind-loaded slopes stabilize relatively quickly, human-triggered </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>wind slab avalanches </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>remain possible, especially in high elevation terrain where the surface snow remains dry and cool. Either avoid obviously wind-loaded slopes or assess their stability by watching for shooting cracks and performing a quick extended column test - you only need to dig down to the thick underlying crust, 1-2 feet deep (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqn0KFZqXYs&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvSpq8Ps… to video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>).&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger in Cooke City is MODERATE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Temperatures in the Bridger, Madison, Gallatin, Lionhead and Centennial Ranges will reach the mid-50s F. The primary concern is </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>wet loose avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> this afternoon, and the focal point for instability is steep rocky slopes with uncompacted snow on southerly aspects (southeast through west). Wet loose slides are mostly a hazard in very steep or extreme terrain, where they could push a skier or rider into obstacles or terrain traps. If you notice pinwheels of snow rolling downhill or small wet slides, move to cooler, shaded northerly aspects to reduce exposure.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Stay situationally aware when traveling </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>above and below large overhanging cornices,</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> as they tend to break off periodically during warm spring days.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Other than small wet snow avalanches on sun-exposed slopes, the snowpack is generally stable, and dry snow avalanches are unlikely. The danger is LOW and will rise to MODERATE on the specific slopes where snow surfaces get wet.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>