Trip Planning for Island Park

As we rode into Lionhead we saw many slides that either ran naturally or from cornice falls. Most of the slides happened Fri or Sat. Winds are blowing strong at all aspects and elevations. Slopes are being loaded further and we triggered a small slide (video) from 50 feet away (aka remotely triggered). This is a serious sign of instability and we were careful to not get on or underneath avalanche terrain.

Observation Date:

January 26, 2023 - January 26, 2023 

Submitted:

January 27, 2023 

Observer:

RRS - Kevin Allred 

Zone or Region:

Island Park 

Location:

Mount Two Top (NNE 7680')

Signs of Unstable Snow

Recent Avalanches? 

 None Observed 

Cracking? 

 None Experienced 

Collapsing? 

 None Experienced 

We Traveled to the Two Top area. Due to low visibility and new drifting snow Our snow pit location was in a lower tree covered elevation. We observed a surprisingly strong snowpack void of the obvious buried SH layers we found higher. With new snow available for transport and strong SW winds we observed wind loading on NNE aspects in the area. 

Snow Stability

Stability Rating: 

Good 

Confidence in Rating: 

 Moderate 

Stability Trend: 

Worsening 

Bottom Line

The Buried SH layers are still present especially in higher elevation open slope areas. With the arrival of new snow, accompanied by strong winds the potential to form a wind slab over a PWL (Buried SH) could have serious consequence to riders in this area.

Advanced Information

Weather Summary

Cloud Cover:

Obscured 

Temperature:

15° 

Wind:

Strong , SW 

New/Recent Snowfall:

1 inch of new snow reported from the previous night. 

Winter storm warning had been issued for the area. 18'' of new snow in higher elevations followed by strong winds. We observed new snow available for transport at all elevations 

Avalanche Observations

Avalanche Observation Comments:

None observed

Snowpack Observations

NNE aspect 7680' HS 175cm CTN

Avalanche Problems

Heightened awareness of increasing avalanche danger with the arrival of this storm.

Terrain Use

Our travel mindset for the day, to not travel in avalanche terrain over 30°.Due to low visibility, blowing and drifting snow our travel plan was impacted and our route was shortened. I learned later of 2 riders in the Keg springs area that dropped into Carrot canyon unable to get out due to a damaged Snowmobile they where rescued by Clark county SAR 03:30 this morning. All where cold tired but SAFE! A big thanks to Clark County SAR A reminder of the dangers of back country travel

Signs of Unstable Snow

Recent Avalanches? 

 None Observed 

Cracking? 

 None Experienced 

Collapsing? 

 None Experienced 

We observed a strong cohesive snowpack on a wind loaded slope NE of Two Top. But we noticed three separate buried SH layers. First 5cm from surface second @ 25cm third @55cm. These buried SH layers tend to be touchy. They are concerning in that the deeper layers rest above and below densely packed wind blown slab.

Three separate layers of Buried SH within the top 100cm of the snow pack. The top layer @5cm from the surface is not worrisome at this time but with added snow in the future it has potential to become a problem layer. The second and third layer @25cm,@55cm,from surface could be human triggered, with the potential of a deadly slab avalanche.

Advanced Information

Weather Summary

Cloud Cover:

Partly Cloudy 

Temperature:

17° 

Wind:

Light , SW 

New/Recent Snowfall:

No resent snow 

Upper elevations mostly sunny the past 2 days.Lower elevations experienced AM fog Light winds. We noticed ridge top blowing snow.

Advanced Information

Weather Summary

Cloud Cover:

Partly Cloudy 

Temperature:

17° 

Wind:

Light , SW 

New/Recent Snowfall:

Avalanche Observations

Avalanche Observation Comments:

Observed several natural avalanches on NE ridge at Two Top below cornice in steep wind loaded terrain

Snowpack Observations

NNE aspect 8186ft, 44.62319,-111.24732, HS230,PWL buried SH@ 5cm,25cm,55cm from surface. First test, CTMsc@55 second test CTMsc@25. ECTN27@25 

Layer Depth/Date: Jan.22,2023  
Weak Layer(s):  Jan 5, 2023 (SH) 
Comments: Buried SH 5,25, 55, CTMsc@55, CTMsc@25 ECTN 27@ 25

Buried layers of SH. These layer's seem to be very widespread throughout the region. They are worrisome in that they could be human triggerd with deadly potential.

Terrain Use

Our travel Plan to avoid any terrain greater than 30°. There are many options in this area to have a challenging ride without exposing the group to avalanche hazard.

Observation Details

Observation Date:

January 21, 2023 - January 21, 2023 

Submitted:

January 21, 2023 

Observer:

RRS - Kevin Allred 

Zone or Region:

Island Park 

Location:

Yale Creek (SSW) 

Signs of Unstable Snow

Recent Avalanches? 

 None Observed 

Cracking? 

 None Experienced 

Collapsing? 

 None Experienced 

Found a layer of near surface facets 25 cm from the surface not problematic now but with new snow coming this could become a layer of concern 

Snow Stability

Stability Rating: 

Good 

Confidence in Rating: 

 Moderate 

Stability Trend: 

Steady 

Bottom Line

The snow seems to be very stable found a MF crust 45cm / surface from a warming trend early in January. Below the MF layer a strong cohesive slab. 15cm layer of DH at ground level average grain size of 2 mm 

Advanced Information

Weather Summary

Cloud Cover:

Clear 

Temperature:

17º 

Wind:

Calm , SW 

New/Recent Snowfall:

Trace of new snow past 24 hours 

Mostly clear skies light winds out of the south west no blowing snow 

Avalanche Observations

Avalanche Observation Comments:

None Observed

Snowpack Observations

Head of Yale Creek 8470' elevation SSW aspect HS 175 CTM SC @ 20 cm below surface on a near surface FC. ECTN 

Avalanche Problems

Our primary concern is a layer of SH that is variable in distribution . This layer was not evident in our snow pit location. 

Terrain Use

Our travel plan avoid avalanche terrain over 30° We traveled to observe an avalanche fatality site from 1998. The area had heavily trafficked by snowmobile activity. We remained with our conservative travel plan at 30°

We are finding impressively strong snowpack. But we also have a weak layer buried about 2 feet into the snowpack that is very worrisome. It's deep enough that when triggered will be deadly, consider consequences and know where the persistent weak layer is before exposing your group. We have been on the snow all week and find lots of powder to play in without using slopes and connected terrain that is greater than 30 degrees.

SE aspect, 7640 ft, HS 130, PWL buried SH 83, DH 45, CTHsc@83, ECTN23@45. 

This PWL is widespread, but not necessarily reactive in all areas. We did feel a collapse on this same aspect and elevation yesterday, near Sawtelle Creek so we went back to test and found some results. 

I dug one pit at 8200’ NE aspect in Yale ECTX. Kevin was a little lower and around on the east side of Sawtell, he felt a big wumph. He didn’t confirm what layer, but this is probably your buried SH.

Small avalanche broke while descending to less exposed areas.  Approximately 80 yards wide, 18” deep.  Slid for approximately 90 yards from crown.

Dave and Doug rode around and saw multiple natural and 1 sledder triggered slide on Lionhead. Some were thin and just involved news snow and others were deeper and broke on the buried surface hoar layer.

Wind loading from last storm snow. Large surface hoar formed on all aspects. Also noticed 1-2cm settlement around trees on northeast facing slopes.

We rode to Arange Peak and dug a pit (HS 210 cm, S facing, 8800'). We found the SH/nsf layer, but it did not propagate, It was a good 2 feet under the surface. We then rode and dug 3 more quick pits and either didn’t find the SH or had ECTN or CTN. We saw no avalanches and a rider who was near Mt. Jefferson 2 days ago also saw no activity. I am still very leery of the SH and believe it survived on a few slopes and acted accordingly, i.e. no riding steep slopes.

Dave and Doug rode around and saw multiple natural and 1 sledder triggered slide on Lionhead. Some were thin and just involved news snow and others were deeper and broke on the buried surface hoar layer.

New snow and wind loading. On southeast facing slopes found 8cm layer of facets below melt freeze layer about 50-60cm below surface.

side hilled off of two top trail and broke small slab off

From Facebook: High Mountain Adventures snowmobile rental reported one of their renters triggered a slide on the waterfalls (Mt Jefferson/Sawtelle).

I am finding very solid snowpack in most areas. We dug one pit yesterday that exhibited two weak layers in the top 35cm and one near the ground. This was a wind loaded slope with HN 230cm. CT test did not fail. No evidence of surface hoar at this location. 9100 feet on a NE aspect.
At lower elevations I found evidence of surface hoar forming, but not necessarily on the snow, see photo.

We are entering a warming trend, which is generally healthy for the snowpack. The conditions are right for surface hoar development; however, I am only finding very isolated evidence of this. Something to keep an eye out for.

We have several weak layers in the snowpack that could fail causing an avalanche, likely a large deadly avalanche. It's hard to find places that exhibit reactive test results, but the evidence is in recently human triggered avalanches. We are not getting a ton of new snow and together with the mild temperatures this will create a strong snowpack over time. The places to watch out for are shallower snowpack areas where the persistent weak layer is easier to trigger.  

From IG 1/7/23: We dug a pit in island park back up Blue Creek on the Centennials side. South facing slope. ECTX

Same PWL's as observed in recent past. Newly forming wind slabs and a more recently formed 2 cm (very fragile) melt freeze crust at 228 cm. 

4-5 in. HST on top of melt freeze crust

A lot of blowing and lightly falling snow the past few days. Larger drifts forming on the NE aspect ridge line where we dug our test pit today.

CTH 192 cm above melt freeze crust

Extremely crusty snow. Dug a pit and found three very defined ice layers around 5500ft. 

Newly formed melt freeze crust near surface and wind slab continuing to form due to current weather conditions. Wind loaded slopes will continue to be a hazard along with PWL's.

Had 7 sleds in a relatively small area on the south facing side of Taylor mountain at about 10k ft.

Group noticed a substantial wumph after sitting for less than a minute.

Don't believe it is cause for serious alarm as a snow pit showed relative stability. Just something we all noticed and talked about and to be aware of as the snow continues to fall.

1/3/23